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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."